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Appendix 5 Housing Trends

A5.1 The Dorset Structure Plan covers the period 1994 to 2011 and includes the distribution of Dorset’s housing requirement between districts. Poole is expected to provide 9,500 dwellings during the Plan period.

A5.2 Between 1994 and 2003, 4,424 dwellings were completed, amounting to 46.57% of the overall requirement. 5,076dwellings remain to be completed in the remaining 8 years of the Structure Plan. The Local Plan demonstrates how this level of housing will be achieved through the implementation of existing planning permissions, the allocation of major sites for housing and through windfall development.

A5.3 The strategic approach to the location of new development puts the emphasis on concentrating development in urban areas and siting development on previously used land. The urban area of Poole is surrounded by the South East Dorset Green Belt which serves to concentrate development and prevent urban sprawl. Other than sites protected for their nature conservation interest and open space, most of the land in Poole is developed or has had a previous use. Although Regional Planning Guidance for the South West suggests a target for at least 50% of the total housing provision to be on previously developed land across the region, reflecting the scarcity of sites in the South West, about 81.6% of new housing built in Poole since 1994 has been sited on previously developed land.

A5.4 A capacity study conducted in Poole in conjunction with other districts, Dorset County Council and the House Builders Federation, estimated the potential for windfall housing development. The approach taken was to examine the capacity for the elements which make up windfall development namely infill, conversion, change of use, undeveloped land, derelict land and redevelopment. The overall potential for windfall development was assessed and a number of assumptions were applied to achieve a realistic assessment of what is likely to be developed.

Table A5.1 - Windfall Estimate 1994 - 2011

A5.5 The assumptions were made on the basis that capacity studies invariably underestimate infill. For conversions it was considered that the 1983-94 trend was a more reasonable indication than capacity because the potential capacity was significantly in excess of that needed to continue past rates of supply. Change of use and redevelopment are difficult to anticipate in capacity studies and trend figures were considered to be safer indicators. The identification and assessment of undeveloped and derelict land is relatively straightforward and capacity estimates were used. The resulting estimates of trends are as follows:

Table A5.2 - Housing Capacity 1994 - 2011